達里奧:「關稅戰」正升級為「出口禁運戰」 我們正處於危險邊緣

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As I have explained for a while, the U.S.-China conflict is much more extensive than a “trade war.” It is an ideological conflict of comparable powers in a small world. It’s about 1) China emerging to challenge the power of the U.S. in many areas and 2) these two countries having two different approaches to life­—one that’s top down and one that’s bottom up. These conflicts extend to American and Chinese businesses, technologies, capital markets, influences over other countries, militaries, ideologies, and most everything else. They are made especially difficult because the Chinese, the Americans, and those who deal with them both are now so interdependent, with the interdependencies being both vulnerabilities of each and weapons that each can use to hurt the other. 

正如我之經解釋過的,美中衝突比「貿易戰」更為廣泛。這是兩個實力相當的勢力之間的意識形態衝突。這是關於:1)中國在許多領域正挑戰美國的力量;2)這兩個國家有兩種不同的生活方式:一種是自上而下,另一種是自下而上。這些衝突延伸到美國和中國的企業、技術、資本市場,影響到其他國家、軍事、意識形態和其他一切。現時情況變得特別困難,因為中國人、美國人、以及與他們打交道的人現在都是如此相互依賴。相互依賴使每個人都脆弱,每個人都可以用武器來傷害對方。 

As someone in these negotiations wisely said, history shows that countries in conflict have seen that such conflicts can easily slip beyond their control and become terrible wars that all parties, including the leaders who got their countries into them, deeply regretted, so the parties in the negotiations should be careful that that doesn’t happen. Right now we are seeing brinksmanship negotiations, so it is a risky time. It is widely believed that time is on China’s side so that it is in the U.S. interest to have any fight that’s going to occur happen earlier and in China’s interest to have it later. This is leading to the Trump administration’s pushing the limits. Worth keeping in mind is how Chinese and Americans fight wars differently (the Chinese more strategically by gaining relative strength and the Americans more by exchanging blows until one side gives up). While all of this enters into my thinking, what is now most important at this time of brinksmanship is seeing what actually happens next—i.e. whether we see the “tariff war” slip into an “export embargo war” intended to shut parts of the other country down. 

正如談判中一些人的明智說法,歷史表明國家衝突很容易發展超出控制範圍並變成可怕的戰爭,所有的人,包括他們的領導人在內,都會深感後悔。因此談判應該小心,使這種情況不會發生。現在我們正在看到邊緣政策談判,所以這是一個風險的時刻。人們普遍認為,時間站在中國這一邊,因此,站在美國的角度會想鬥爭提前發生,而站在中國的角度則想希望延後。這導致特朗普政府不斷推向界限。值得記住的是,中國人和美國人如何以不同的方式戰爭(中國人更有戰略地增加相對優勢,而美國人則更傾向互毆直至一方屈服)。雖然所有這些都進入了我的思考,但現在最重要的是在接近邊緣的時候去看接下來發生什麼-我們是否認為「關稅戰爭」變成旨在搞垮對方國家的「出口禁運戰爭」。 

As explained last week in the “Beyond the Trade War: The Huawei Step,” the U.S. shutting off supplies to Huawei appears to be a step forward by the United States in weaponizing export controls. Notably, soon after that announcement, President Xi visited the largest rare metals mine in China and a top planning organization suggested that China might reciprocate such moves by the U.S. by not selling rare metals to the U.S. Refined rare metals are a critical import that American companies don’t produce and need to get from China to produce many needed products in the U.S. such as mobile phones, magnets, night vision glasses, gyroscopes in jets, LED lights, glass, and ceramics.

正如上週在《貿易戰之上:華為一步》中所解釋的那樣,美國關閉對華為的供應似乎是美國在出口管制「武器化」方面向前邁出的一步。值得注意的是,在宣布之後不久,習主席訪問了中國最大的稀土礦,一家頂級規劃組織表示,中國可能會通過不向美國出售稀土來回應美國此類舉措。精製稀土是美國公司的重要進口產品。美國公司自己不生產這些稀土,需要從中國進口到美國,用以生產許多所需產品,如手機、磁鐵、夜視眼鏡、噴氣式陀螺儀、LED燈、玻璃和陶瓷。 

I would view an increasing of export controls that are intended to shut down key areas as a major escalation of the “war.”


Building independence will happen regardless of what is negotiated because both sides have learned that they need to be protected against being squeezed in the years of increasing tensions ahead That is a big deal because it is a major, multi-year undertaking that will take resources away from other development. Uncertainties over tariffs and future developments are causing many businesses who produce in China to export to the U.S. (or who might be affected by the fight between the U.S. and China) to rethink whether they would be better off producing in another country. These forces will be major disruptors to the specific people, companies, and governments affected by them. 


我認為越來越多的出口管制旨在關閉關鍵領域,作為「戰爭」的重大升級。


無論談判的內容如何,建立自主性都會發生,因為雙方都知道需要保護他們免受未來緊張局勢加劇的壓力。這是一件大事,因為這是一項重大的多年任務,需要從其他發展中取得資源。關稅和未來發展的不確定性導致許多在中國生產出口到美國的企業(或者可能受到中美之間鬥爭影響的企業),重新考慮應否在另一個國家生產。這些力量將成為受其影響的特定人群、公司和政府的主要破壞者。 

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